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发表于 4-1-2011 16:37:16
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HDB resale and private home prices growths stabilise
Jan 4, 2011 - PropertyGuru.com.sg Share | | Comment | E-mail to friend | Bookmark & Share
The property cooling measures implemented by the government in end-August are now taking effect, with both the URA residential price index and HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) flash estimates reflecting a smaller quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 2010.
The URA residential price index climbed 2.7 percent to 194.8 in Q4 from Q3, while the HDB RPI edged up 2.4% to 171.9.
“Although these figures indicate yet another all-time record for both the public and private housing markets, it is important to note that the growth is indeed slowing down and attaining more sustainable levels,” said Mr. Mohamed Ismail, chief executive of PropNex.
He explained that the continuing growth for the RPI can be attributed to the higher transaction prices of resale flats even with falling Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) levels.
“According to our monthly transactions for 4Q10,” he elaborates, “overall median COV levels have dropped from $30,000 in 3Q10 (according to HDB statistics) to $26,000 in October, $23,000 in November and $20,000 in December, in line with HDB’s flash estimate of a drop to $23,000 for the quarter. This is an indication that the overall median COV level for the country for 4Q10, which will be released on 28 January 2011, should fall by about 23% Q-on-Q.”
However, he explained that “valuations for resale flats that were transacted in 4Q10 were based on prevailing caveats for flats in the vicinity”
On the private residential front, Mr. Ismail attributes the slow-down in growth to a lower upward trend in the Rest of Central and Outside Central areas, which rose 1.7 percent and 1.6 percent respectively, were largely due to the resistance from buyers for increasingly expensive projects in the resale market.
Li Hiaw Ho, executive director of CBRE Research also explained that the “total rise of 17.6% in 2010 from end-2009 levels represents a vast improvement in private home prices when compared to a rise of only 1.8% in 2009 and a fall of 4.7% in 2008. At 194.8 points, the Q4 2010 residential price index is also an all-time high and it has surpassed the 1996 market peak by 7.4%.”
Mr. Li noted that this year will see “the highest volume of 15,500 to 16,000 new private homes ever sold.” He said that since the implementation of the cooling measures, “buying activity has persisted because of healthy economic conditions, high liquidity and record low interest rates. Some home-buyers also chose to buy homes last year in anticipation of further price hikes in 2011.”
Mr. Ismail also anticipates foreign investors to continue to drive property projects in the Core Central and Rest of Central areas, leading to growth of about 1 to 2 percent per quarter in private residential prices.
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